An infantry/armour attack against Iran by the US Army would rely heavily for success on US air superiority. Is the USA that confident when it already has to keep its carriers outside stand-off range? Trade between Iran and Russia via overland routes proceeds apace, as does the construction of the Rasht-Astara line.
As we are all well aware, Russian military manufacturing has geared up to heretofore-unseen levels, and significant numbers of essential equipment such as tanks are being sent straight from the production line into the reserve, brand-new, against the possibility/probability Russia will become embroiled in a direct war with NATO. Russia likely has air-defense systems it could provide to Iran, while the USA is tapped out of air-defense munitions, having blown off more than two years' production worth in a little over two weeks. Israel also depends on the USA for its supplies. Given augmentation of Iranian air defense is a possibility, US probes and attempts to influence the ground war from the air would have to proceed as if those air-defense systems are present; the only way to reliably prevent surprise is to be un-surprisable.
The USA and its erstwhile Euro-poodles thought they were being cute beyond words when they were supplying - nudge, nudge, wink, wink - Ukraine overland from Poland. You know you are stupid when someone else using the same tactic against you was not considered in your planning. And the west hasn't a moral-high-ground leg to stand on, even supposing Russia sent active-duty Russian military to operate those air-defense systems, because NATO does that, too - nobody believes the Ukrainians learned how to operate the Patriot system in about half the time it takes Americans to learn it, working in a second language.
"You know you are stupid when someone else using the same tactic against you was not considered in your planning."
Maybe, just maybe, Mark, they do not know even that.
_____
Meanwhile - and back to The Main Game, Iran may well have deceived The Clear Thinkers within The Corridors of Ignorance inside MI6, Central Intell., NATO, Mossad and the other seemingly endless Intell. Agencies that populate Western Intelligence and here that being their belief that the Iranian State would collapse if enough leadership figures were sent off on their merry way.
No way.
Now are they committed and it will be a clash of non-matching military strategies where the Western Way of War, when not smashing up weaker states, is now defined as In-Boom-Out; the Iranians on the other hand have, like Russia, prepared for a long, drawn out War of Attrition and one where they control The-Mother-Of-All-Choke-Points.
_____
Comparisons between The Europeans to The Ukraine and The Gulf Fake Monarchies to Iran are not to be overlooked. The United States has hung them both out to dry. Tut tut. Always a good idea to get along with your close neighbours, especially if they are resource rich and can apply hard military force.
Overlooked in the Western Liberal Media - The United States energy-wise will probably do just fine, as they force a good deal of the globe into a recession and as a strategy to restructure global arrangements to its advantage.
They took their time, developed their advanced weapons systems, tested some in The Ukraine, took technology from Russia and China and, it appears, manufactured a massive inventory of missiles and drones which most can only speculate on.
That is, those who talk to it do not know and those who know do not talk.
___
Israel is being dismantled. That cannot go on much longer and asking for a ceasefire will not work until Iran has removed Israel's military capacities.
Strikes around Dimona evidence that generation of Western aerial defense is easily defeated. Acknowledged in The West?
The U.S. is left with no choice but a land invasion and one may reasonably suppose that the IRGC war gamed / simulated this. Massive U.S. losses will meet Iranian the objective of forcing the U.S. out of the M.E. But they cannot allow themselves to be forced out.
___
Short of using small nuclear weapons, it is hard to see how The Forces of Universal Western Greatness can succeed.
Use of nuclear weapons on non-nuclear Iran is U.S. doctrine.
An infantry/armour attack against Iran by the US Army would rely heavily for success on US air superiority. Is the USA that confident when it already has to keep its carriers outside stand-off range? Trade between Iran and Russia via overland routes proceeds apace, as does the construction of the Rasht-Astara line.
https://eurasianet.org/iranian-russian-trade-route-functioning-normally-despite-bombing
As we are all well aware, Russian military manufacturing has geared up to heretofore-unseen levels, and significant numbers of essential equipment such as tanks are being sent straight from the production line into the reserve, brand-new, against the possibility/probability Russia will become embroiled in a direct war with NATO. Russia likely has air-defense systems it could provide to Iran, while the USA is tapped out of air-defense munitions, having blown off more than two years' production worth in a little over two weeks. Israel also depends on the USA for its supplies. Given augmentation of Iranian air defense is a possibility, US probes and attempts to influence the ground war from the air would have to proceed as if those air-defense systems are present; the only way to reliably prevent surprise is to be un-surprisable.
The USA and its erstwhile Euro-poodles thought they were being cute beyond words when they were supplying - nudge, nudge, wink, wink - Ukraine overland from Poland. You know you are stupid when someone else using the same tactic against you was not considered in your planning. And the west hasn't a moral-high-ground leg to stand on, even supposing Russia sent active-duty Russian military to operate those air-defense systems, because NATO does that, too - nobody believes the Ukrainians learned how to operate the Patriot system in about half the time it takes Americans to learn it, working in a second language.
"You know you are stupid when someone else using the same tactic against you was not considered in your planning."
Maybe, just maybe, Mark, they do not know even that.
_____
Meanwhile - and back to The Main Game, Iran may well have deceived The Clear Thinkers within The Corridors of Ignorance inside MI6, Central Intell., NATO, Mossad and the other seemingly endless Intell. Agencies that populate Western Intelligence and here that being their belief that the Iranian State would collapse if enough leadership figures were sent off on their merry way.
No way.
Now are they committed and it will be a clash of non-matching military strategies where the Western Way of War, when not smashing up weaker states, is now defined as In-Boom-Out; the Iranians on the other hand have, like Russia, prepared for a long, drawn out War of Attrition and one where they control The-Mother-Of-All-Choke-Points.
_____
Comparisons between The Europeans to The Ukraine and The Gulf Fake Monarchies to Iran are not to be overlooked. The United States has hung them both out to dry. Tut tut. Always a good idea to get along with your close neighbours, especially if they are resource rich and can apply hard military force.
Overlooked in the Western Liberal Media - The United States energy-wise will probably do just fine, as they force a good deal of the globe into a recession and as a strategy to restructure global arrangements to its advantage.
I don't think we can be rest assured the Eptein gang will come out on top. Time will tell!
The West has always had actively malicious intent towards Iran. What does Iran propose to do about it?
Always the most interesting of questions.
Advantage defender.
They took their time, developed their advanced weapons systems, tested some in The Ukraine, took technology from Russia and China and, it appears, manufactured a massive inventory of missiles and drones which most can only speculate on.
That is, those who talk to it do not know and those who know do not talk.
___
Israel is being dismantled. That cannot go on much longer and asking for a ceasefire will not work until Iran has removed Israel's military capacities.
Strikes around Dimona evidence that generation of Western aerial defense is easily defeated. Acknowledged in The West?
The U.S. is left with no choice but a land invasion and one may reasonably suppose that the IRGC war gamed / simulated this. Massive U.S. losses will meet Iranian the objective of forcing the U.S. out of the M.E. But they cannot allow themselves to be forced out.
___
Short of using small nuclear weapons, it is hard to see how The Forces of Universal Western Greatness can succeed.
Use of nuclear weapons on non-nuclear Iran is U.S. doctrine.
I suspect that you are getting warmer.