Nice to see you post again, Les. Well done, comprehensive and points stright to the core of what is a collapse in the USA/NATO morally, economically, militarily, and politically, not to mention societaly. Really an exercise in self-destruction due to inflexible arrogance and desire to dominate the world, at all costs. The collapse process is visible to all now and accelerating rapidly. Your writing covers all of the demensions of this collapse. Russia is a mature, intelligent and highly capable and adaptive country, and it has prepared for this intensively for at least 15 years, if not more. The recent events in the oil markets and diplomacy in the Middle East are a mortal dagger in the heart of the USD system of control. As the USD system falters, the West will self-destruct. The chess game has been won, now we are watching a replay of it, move by move. USA will sacrifice all of its pieces eventually to save itself, but will be reduced to a shadow of its former self. All on God's timeline.
excellent Les. You are a veritable wealth of intricate detail and information. We are all the better for understanding your perspective. Thank you for making the time ,the research and the committment to truth DEB
"There is, let me assure you, nothing in nature more egocentric than the embattled democracy. It soon becomes the victim of its own war propaganda. It then tends to attach to its own cause an absolute value which distorts everything else. Its enemy becomes the embodiment of all evil. Its own side, on the other hand, is the center of all virtue. The contest comes to be viewed as having a final, apocalyptic quality. If we lose, all is lost; life will no longer be worth living; there will be nothing to be salvaged. If we win, then everything will be possible; all our problems will become soluble; the one great source of evil - our enemy - will have been crushed; the forces of good will then sweep forward unimpeded; all worthy aspirations will be satisfied" - George F. Kennan.
Hmm. I never hear about any positive results from peace. I never hear that any problems will be solved. The idea seems to be that the populace of the enemy yearns to be ruled by the United States. To this end they will rise up and overthrow their evil leaders. It hasn't worked yet but who knows, eh?
"The contest comes to be viewed as having a final, apocalyptic quality. " I never hear this either. Afghanistan certainly wasn't viewed that way.
Peace is not the goal. The US is firmly antipeace. The unstated goal is endless war. Just like in George Orwell's 1984.
However, we note that for several weeks the Americans have been regularly broadcasting “information”, or rather a “feeling” saying that the Russian nuclear weapons are for the most part (we have read the figure of 80%, taken from no one knows where) unusable because “poorly maintained”.
This in fact is done by Western leaders to persuade public opinion that if Russia is slow to lose the war, then they can safely hit her with nuclear weapons since she will hardly be able to retaliate, 80% of its weapons being “broken down” according to them.
A severe demonstration such as I described above will break this beautiful propaganda.
On the ground, the Ukrainians launch offensive after offensive, all being defeated by the Russian forces. But it would be irresponsible to think that the Ukrainians are coming to the end of their stocks: NATO has almost emptied its stocks of equipment and Ukraine is now over-armed with modern equipment.
Regarding military personnel, not all Ukrainians are dead yet, and many foreign mercenaries (including French, see this video of a Frenchman injured in Ukraine and evacuated. There are also a large number of Poles.
Once it has been understood that on the one hand Russia will go all the way with the demilitarization of Ukraine (that is to say up to Kiev at the very least), and that on the other hand the States- United (and therefore NATO) will not agree to let Russia win, we can consider several possible developments in the situation.
1- Russia continues to systematically destroy the Ukrainian offensives then launches in turn a general offensive in the direction of Odessa and kyiv. NATO realizes that it is unable to reverse the situation unless it intervenes directly, the Ukrainian regime “falls” and Ukraine passes under the direct control of Russia. The United States is preparing other attacks against Russia, as it has done for 20 years: internal destabilization, unrest in the Caucasus, etc. So we find ourselves like 10 years ago, without Ukraine as a forward base for NATO.
2- Russia continues to systematically destroy the Ukrainian offensives then launches in turn a general offensive in the direction of Odessa and kyiv. NATO, pushed by the American military lobby, then either uses tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory against Russian forces or sends its own troops there.
In both cases, Russia goes to war against NATO. If NATO used nuclear weapons, Russia is responding in the same way by hitting military bases in Poland, Romania Germany and France, to begin with. If NATO did not use nuclear weapons, Russia strikes European command centers, military AND political, using new generation weapons (Kinzhal, Poseidon, etc.)
It is then more than likely that the Ukrainian-Polish border will be nothing more than an unimportant line and the fighting will move to Poland and then to Western Europe. The European armies being on the one hand little motivated, on the other hand badly supplied (stocks of material are empty) it is likely that there will be very little resistance. We cannot imagine either England or France using nuclear weapons against Russia, knowing full well what awaits them in this case. Iran and Turkey for their part take advantage of the situation and enter southern Europe. Russia “from Brest to Vladivostok” is coming true…
The Americans will not intervene, even Biden and his manipulators will not risk their safety for Europe. They will introduce new sanctions! And Biden will likely no longer be in power.
3- Although this hypothesis is completely unthinkable, I mention it all the same for the principle: Russia is overwhelmed by the forces of Ukraine and a serious threat hangs over the security of the country, the Ukrainians take Kursk and Belgorod and advance on Moscow. As provided by Russian military doctrine, we are carrying out a warning nuclear strike in Ukraine, then possibly others if the Ukrainians do not leave Russia. Here too, NATO will not intervene more than today since no strikes have been carried out on countries of the Atlantic Alliance. Ukraine thus becomes a devastated “tampom zone” between NATO and Russia. The United States is preparing other attacks against Russia, as it has done for 20 years: internal destabilization, unrest in the Caucasus, etc.
Other parameters come into play: The situation in the United States where the risks of civil war are very real. Trump is in my opinion not a parameter to be taken into account, during his mandate he largely financed the Ukrainian army, bacteriological laboratories in Ukraine etc. A possible second Trump presidency will not change anything, but we can always envisage the election of a totally independent candidate, outside the system, who will then decide to end NATO aid to Ukraine. We are then in hypothesis number 1.
The internal situation in Russia can also play a role: Although Vladimir Putin is, whatever the Western media say, in perfect health, he can die. His replacement will very likely be a “hardliner” from the regime who will continue in the same direction even more energetically.
Although this assumption is completely stupid, I mention it all the same for the principle: A coup in Russia brings the “liberals” of the 5th column to the Kremlin. They order the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine but the army refuses to obey. Civil war in Russia, NATO takes the opportunity to intervene militarily in Russia. This hypothesis, the least probable, would be the most favorable to Western countries.
These hypotheses are just … hypotheses, but Russian leaders are considering them and others. The only certainty today is that Russia will not abandon its objectives. His survival is at stake.
Brilliant, meaty and comprehensive, Les; a foreign-policy primer for how not to do foreign policy, using the example of the most rapacious and consequence-free union there has ever been.
Rarely if ever mentioned in discussion is that the wise-too-late Jeffrey Sachs, much as we would like to accept his analysis now, also led 'The Harvard Boys' in the onset of the 90's and directed the 'shock therapy' program which not only brought down the Soviet Union, but came a hairsbreadth from ruining Russia and in fact ruined many of its inhabitants, to their utter despair.
It's tempting to believe him now because we like what he says, but we should at least consider the possibility that he thinks the destruction of Russia is inevitable and wants to be on the right side of history. I suppose it is not impossible that the cumulative wickedness he must have seen and overseen has turned his head, and I hope that is the case. Whatever, Russia is beyond formulating its own state policies based on what any western philosophers think, although Sach's confessions might help to set the record straight postwar.
The havoc this conflict, coupled with the destruction of the cheap-energy lifeline to Europe, has wreaked on the world is likely to be permanent or at least enduring, and western revolt and violence will only increase as there is no relief from soaring prices due to loss of access to inexpensive energy - this pervades everything that moves or is produced by manufacture. Eventually we will be invited to forgive the puppetmaster his miscalculations, and put our shoulders to the wheel together to help him solve the problem and so that he can continue to rule over us for the benefit of himself and his chosen.
Wonderful post with many layers for immediate gratification and the long-term enjoyment of reflection. Well done.
Nice to see you post again, Les. Well done, comprehensive and points stright to the core of what is a collapse in the USA/NATO morally, economically, militarily, and politically, not to mention societaly. Really an exercise in self-destruction due to inflexible arrogance and desire to dominate the world, at all costs. The collapse process is visible to all now and accelerating rapidly. Your writing covers all of the demensions of this collapse. Russia is a mature, intelligent and highly capable and adaptive country, and it has prepared for this intensively for at least 15 years, if not more. The recent events in the oil markets and diplomacy in the Middle East are a mortal dagger in the heart of the USD system of control. As the USD system falters, the West will self-destruct. The chess game has been won, now we are watching a replay of it, move by move. USA will sacrifice all of its pieces eventually to save itself, but will be reduced to a shadow of its former self. All on God's timeline.
excellent Les. You are a veritable wealth of intricate detail and information. We are all the better for understanding your perspective. Thank you for making the time ,the research and the committment to truth DEB
Masterpiece
"There is, let me assure you, nothing in nature more egocentric than the embattled democracy. It soon becomes the victim of its own war propaganda. It then tends to attach to its own cause an absolute value which distorts everything else. Its enemy becomes the embodiment of all evil. Its own side, on the other hand, is the center of all virtue. The contest comes to be viewed as having a final, apocalyptic quality. If we lose, all is lost; life will no longer be worth living; there will be nothing to be salvaged. If we win, then everything will be possible; all our problems will become soluble; the one great source of evil - our enemy - will have been crushed; the forces of good will then sweep forward unimpeded; all worthy aspirations will be satisfied" - George F. Kennan.
Hmm. I never hear about any positive results from peace. I never hear that any problems will be solved. The idea seems to be that the populace of the enemy yearns to be ruled by the United States. To this end they will rise up and overthrow their evil leaders. It hasn't worked yet but who knows, eh?
"The contest comes to be viewed as having a final, apocalyptic quality. " I never hear this either. Afghanistan certainly wasn't viewed that way.
Peace is not the goal. The US is firmly antipeace. The unstated goal is endless war. Just like in George Orwell's 1984.
WWIII: 3 scenarii
However, we note that for several weeks the Americans have been regularly broadcasting “information”, or rather a “feeling” saying that the Russian nuclear weapons are for the most part (we have read the figure of 80%, taken from no one knows where) unusable because “poorly maintained”.
This in fact is done by Western leaders to persuade public opinion that if Russia is slow to lose the war, then they can safely hit her with nuclear weapons since she will hardly be able to retaliate, 80% of its weapons being “broken down” according to them.
A severe demonstration such as I described above will break this beautiful propaganda.
On the ground, the Ukrainians launch offensive after offensive, all being defeated by the Russian forces. But it would be irresponsible to think that the Ukrainians are coming to the end of their stocks: NATO has almost emptied its stocks of equipment and Ukraine is now over-armed with modern equipment.
Regarding military personnel, not all Ukrainians are dead yet, and many foreign mercenaries (including French, see this video of a Frenchman injured in Ukraine and evacuated. There are also a large number of Poles.
https://boriskarpov.tvs24.ru/2023/06/18/3eme-guerre-mondiale-partie-3-evolution-du-conflit-russie-otan-3-scenari/
Once it has been understood that on the one hand Russia will go all the way with the demilitarization of Ukraine (that is to say up to Kiev at the very least), and that on the other hand the States- United (and therefore NATO) will not agree to let Russia win, we can consider several possible developments in the situation.
1- Russia continues to systematically destroy the Ukrainian offensives then launches in turn a general offensive in the direction of Odessa and kyiv. NATO realizes that it is unable to reverse the situation unless it intervenes directly, the Ukrainian regime “falls” and Ukraine passes under the direct control of Russia. The United States is preparing other attacks against Russia, as it has done for 20 years: internal destabilization, unrest in the Caucasus, etc. So we find ourselves like 10 years ago, without Ukraine as a forward base for NATO.
2- Russia continues to systematically destroy the Ukrainian offensives then launches in turn a general offensive in the direction of Odessa and kyiv. NATO, pushed by the American military lobby, then either uses tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory against Russian forces or sends its own troops there.
In both cases, Russia goes to war against NATO. If NATO used nuclear weapons, Russia is responding in the same way by hitting military bases in Poland, Romania Germany and France, to begin with. If NATO did not use nuclear weapons, Russia strikes European command centers, military AND political, using new generation weapons (Kinzhal, Poseidon, etc.)
It is then more than likely that the Ukrainian-Polish border will be nothing more than an unimportant line and the fighting will move to Poland and then to Western Europe. The European armies being on the one hand little motivated, on the other hand badly supplied (stocks of material are empty) it is likely that there will be very little resistance. We cannot imagine either England or France using nuclear weapons against Russia, knowing full well what awaits them in this case. Iran and Turkey for their part take advantage of the situation and enter southern Europe. Russia “from Brest to Vladivostok” is coming true…
The Americans will not intervene, even Biden and his manipulators will not risk their safety for Europe. They will introduce new sanctions! And Biden will likely no longer be in power.
3- Although this hypothesis is completely unthinkable, I mention it all the same for the principle: Russia is overwhelmed by the forces of Ukraine and a serious threat hangs over the security of the country, the Ukrainians take Kursk and Belgorod and advance on Moscow. As provided by Russian military doctrine, we are carrying out a warning nuclear strike in Ukraine, then possibly others if the Ukrainians do not leave Russia. Here too, NATO will not intervene more than today since no strikes have been carried out on countries of the Atlantic Alliance. Ukraine thus becomes a devastated “tampom zone” between NATO and Russia. The United States is preparing other attacks against Russia, as it has done for 20 years: internal destabilization, unrest in the Caucasus, etc.
Other parameters come into play: The situation in the United States where the risks of civil war are very real. Trump is in my opinion not a parameter to be taken into account, during his mandate he largely financed the Ukrainian army, bacteriological laboratories in Ukraine etc. A possible second Trump presidency will not change anything, but we can always envisage the election of a totally independent candidate, outside the system, who will then decide to end NATO aid to Ukraine. We are then in hypothesis number 1.
The internal situation in Russia can also play a role: Although Vladimir Putin is, whatever the Western media say, in perfect health, he can die. His replacement will very likely be a “hardliner” from the regime who will continue in the same direction even more energetically.
Although this assumption is completely stupid, I mention it all the same for the principle: A coup in Russia brings the “liberals” of the 5th column to the Kremlin. They order the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine but the army refuses to obey. Civil war in Russia, NATO takes the opportunity to intervene militarily in Russia. This hypothesis, the least probable, would be the most favorable to Western countries.
These hypotheses are just … hypotheses, but Russian leaders are considering them and others. The only certainty today is that Russia will not abandon its objectives. His survival is at stake.
Your grip ,focus and eloquence are drink to the parched and thirsty. Never diminish.
Brilliant, meaty and comprehensive, Les; a foreign-policy primer for how not to do foreign policy, using the example of the most rapacious and consequence-free union there has ever been.
Rarely if ever mentioned in discussion is that the wise-too-late Jeffrey Sachs, much as we would like to accept his analysis now, also led 'The Harvard Boys' in the onset of the 90's and directed the 'shock therapy' program which not only brought down the Soviet Union, but came a hairsbreadth from ruining Russia and in fact ruined many of its inhabitants, to their utter despair.
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/harvard-boys-do-russia/
It's tempting to believe him now because we like what he says, but we should at least consider the possibility that he thinks the destruction of Russia is inevitable and wants to be on the right side of history. I suppose it is not impossible that the cumulative wickedness he must have seen and overseen has turned his head, and I hope that is the case. Whatever, Russia is beyond formulating its own state policies based on what any western philosophers think, although Sach's confessions might help to set the record straight postwar.
The havoc this conflict, coupled with the destruction of the cheap-energy lifeline to Europe, has wreaked on the world is likely to be permanent or at least enduring, and western revolt and violence will only increase as there is no relief from soaring prices due to loss of access to inexpensive energy - this pervades everything that moves or is produced by manufacture. Eventually we will be invited to forgive the puppetmaster his miscalculations, and put our shoulders to the wheel together to help him solve the problem and so that he can continue to rule over us for the benefit of himself and his chosen.
Wonderful post with many layers for immediate gratification and the long-term enjoyment of reflection. Well done.
Phew. Will take some time for this to sink in. Already sucked up my morning!