Ukraine Notes - The Long Proxy War II
Foreign Policy. Power Projection. Deceit.
The reason I avoid mainstream media is for the same reason one would not swim in the Cloāca Maxima of the Ancient Roman Empirium.
Not Spengler's 1918 deterministic view but it is looking like it.
>>> How We Got Here <<<
The promotion of a liberal international order based upon human rights and inviolable sovereignty was simultaneously undermined by Western imperial pursuit of naked national self-interest, that well recognized duality between power and principle that has characterized every global order for the past several hundred years. Attempting to forge a liberal world order while simultaneously conducting several centuries of slavery, slaughter and colonial conquest has brought us to the present moment with its numerous internal contradictions. This includes an unrestrained and entirely profligate approach to fossil-fuel consumption that both ignored and misrepresented the damaging effects of a hydrocarbon based economy, one that has become the defining and most damaging feature of the Anglo-U.S. World System. It is notable that the DC electric motor was invented around the same time as the internal combustion engine, circa early 1800's.
As MaoZeDong, Chinese historian observed, power does grow out of the barrel of a gun. He meant state power. Overlooked in English translations.
Russia and China stand as the most serious geo-political threats that the United States has faced for one hundred years and the only serious geo-political threat The West has faced for a few hundred years. Russians and Chinese have long memories and their histories of foreign imperial interventions are taught in schools. They may not represent a new liberal international order - yet to be seen. The past fifty years of the transferring of industrial capability to The East in the belief that it would be a compliant outpost and workshop for Western Capitalism is the last major civilizational failure of The West. Essentially it is over for The West, the centers of power know it, they don't like it and there is little they can do except to be spoilers and dangerous spoilers at that. Very dangerous spoilers.
Western economies are now comprised largely of service industries. They perform superfluous work. Defined by financialization, property trading, accounting, law, marketing and the sale of prescription and non-prescription drugs. The people who head up these organizations and governments are humanities-trained bureaucrats who talk ecumenical, corporatist dogma. They are devoid of the knowledge, skills, experience, imagination, intellectual depth, risk orientation and foresight to construct country industrial power and military power. They only understand transactional economics and are, for the most part, highly educated, well-off fools. They live off past successes, dated ideas and “spend the unearned inheritance”, as the American Dr. GunSiu expressed.
Within their domain, education has drifted away from its founding narratives of democracy and individual rights, replaced by the narratives of economic utility and the belief in technology as the measure of humanity's progress. Preparation for the workplace. Now being made redundant, notably through Artificial Intelligence.
Significantly, media culture in The West, a system of propaganda, is dominated by liberal democrat ideologues who assert an acceptable and polite view of world events, when not promoting fear of foreigners, as they do on the foreign wars managed by The West. This extends to countries that do not conform to Western requirements of submission to exploitation. Methods include only what events are reported and what is excluded, as well as narrative content. This includes tendentious pieces prepared by the national security apparatus and government, but let's not overlook private sector advertorials for the privately run commercial media. They are transfixed by the certainty of their illusions and so should we. The now none-too-hidden persuaders. And then there is advertising, wherein one is forced to absorb corporate messaging by the thousands every year. The basis now of many people's "ideas". They have no ideas. They are parrots. Extensions of their mobile phones.
Alternatively, the prosperity of a nation is not greater in the proportion in which it has amassed more wealth but in the proportion in which it has developed its powers of production.
Alternatively, The West will collapse because it is concerned with what can be bought rather than what can be made. Nations are either dependent or sovereign according to their ability to make things for themselves. The West runs on a financialized debt economy which enforces its will on other countries using militarized foreign policy and finance. This works on technologically inferior states. It does not work on China and Russia, largely sovereign states.
"The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum — even encourage the more critical and dissident views. That gives people the sense that there’s free thinking going on, while all the time the presuppositions of the system are being reinforced by the limits put on the range of the debate…” 1998, The Common Good, Noam Chomsky.
Vladimir Putin is a cruel autocrat invading a sovereign nation to secure his legacy, no matter how many people die as a result.
A Western narrative, oft repeated. How do we know? How do they who say know? He did say no to NATO weapons on their borders, more than once. What does the foreigner want with Russia then? Divide Russia, steal its resources.
I would add - Of what may have been done with the Past, the Past is not done with you. Read on . . .
>>> Foreign Policy Redux <<<
- Robert McNamara, White House wiz-kid pointing to a small, backward, quite distant Asian country as a clear and present danger to the largest and most powerful armed forces the world has ever seen. Dr. Kissinger, being questioned on the loss of the Vietnam War, demurred. The US did not lose that war. How so? "Vietnam was reduced to a backwater" - and so it was. McNamara, incidentally, a brilliant mathematician, brought Systems Analysis and Mathematical Techniques into government planning. Worked out well.
- Vietnam, Laos, The Philippines, Indonesia, unlike the United States, could not project significant military power beyond there own borders, to the extent that they had any. The threat that was presented to Western audiences that they posed was entirely ideological. Communism. Just how anyone in The Prosperous West would, in any numbers, become enamored with Communism remained explained. Just why some non-compliant Russian leader wants to preside over The West remains unexplained as the Russian State heads off into a Eurasian Integrated Economy, without The West. On a minor, almost incidental point, unlike then technologically backward Asian countries, China and Russia have the means to obliterate The West.
>>> The Ukraine Proxy War <<<
- The 2019 RAND study “Overextending and Unbalancing Russia” [prior post] had its major assumption [foundational myth?] that Russia’s economy “is comparatively small and highly dependent on energy exports” and saw Ukraine as “Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability”. That assumption is no longer under test. On the available evidence, it has been liquidated, along with significant numbers of the Armed Forces of The Ukraine [AFU] and their equipment.
- The standard refrain from The West and a good number of [well paid?] military specialist commentators is that the Russian Armed Forces are mediocre and run mostly obsolete equipment. In six months time, looking back, we shall see how true that was. That narrative does have certain difficulties though, discussed below. If it was true, the US-NATO-UK would have invaded, rather than running a Proxy War to weaken Russian Armed Forces and the economy.
- Some commentators have correctly identified the action in The Ukraine as a US-NATO-UK Proxy War. Few have enumerated the reasons. In no particular order. Regrettable but nevertheless distinguishable outcomes, to take a line from Dr. Strangelove . . .
1. Control by Washington over European energy consumption, by directing consumption to US sourced hydrocarbons. Some success here. Can it last?
2. Weaken the Russian economy, destroy the value of Russian currency to cause an unaffordable cost of living. Little to no success.
3. Weaken the Russian Armed Forces, explicitly stated by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to wear down the Russian Armed Forces and run them out of munitions. No success. Or, if you like, set them back at least 12 hours.
4. Cause the Russian President to lose favor and be removed, in favor of a pro-Western compliant leader, read Washington stooge. No success. Further, the grand assumption behind Vlad Putin’s overthrow is that his replacement can be "arranged", Victoria Nuland style. A long shot if there ever was one. A replacement like Dmitry Medvedev may not be as felicitous to The West, a criticism within Russia directed at President Putin. But no longer.
5. In view of the forgoing, cause Russia to be broken into three or more parts and so be amenable to intervention of Western Capital. Yesteryear’s hollow interventionist strategy. No success. Never worked on China either.
6. Enable the US armaments industry to replace recent wars in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq with their raison d'etre for larger military spending. Success.
7. Sell more US armaments to Europe. Success. Frighten all us Australians too.
8. Replace all exports of product from Russia to the European Union with US sourced, where feasible. No success.
9. Act The Spoiler. Prevent European countries from joining a trading arrangement of mutual benefit with China, Russia, Iran, Asia - the great Eurasian Union. No success with the latter. Some with the former.
10. Continue to occupy Russian Armed Forces with security concerns at the risk of bordering countries - Sweden and Finland the latest. So far, so good. Sort of. They may get smashed like The Ukraine, but with standoff weapons.
- Just what could go wrong? For Washington, for Europe? A lot. US interests, notably set up under Vice President Biden, are ejected from The Ukraine. But then -
- The Enemies of the West never rest. They will infect us with historical explanations, promote critical questioning and cast doubt on the near unassailable mantra of Western goodness because, as George W. Bush US president helpfully explained, they hate us for our freedoms. You get the picture.
- "A neutral Ukraine is the solution and it's been the solution all along . . . inside Ukraine itself it would make the Far Right very unhappy. This is why Zelensky has remarkably little maneuver room . . . ". Dr. John Mearsheimer, June, 2022.
- Problem. Past due. Russian objectives appear to be to destroy NATO. Thus no Ukrainian ceasefire. The Ukraine ceases to exist as a recognizable state. Much written in The West about Russia’s inferior armed forces and old Soviet equipment. To undertake the foregoing requires Escalation Dominance and thus the most powerful armed forces. Russia has it. Kissinger sees it. Many reject it. Hence his emphasis on - settle now; in two months time it will be too late. It's now too late. It was too late in February, 2022.
- Who will be seen to be right; who will be seen to be wrong? Read on . . .
- Reports of Russian Armed Forces senior staff killed in The Ukraine may well have some truth. Russian commanders are in the battle space, not behind the lines in HQ, directing matters via digital screens. Russian commanders get real experience. This leaves them the best and most experienced armed forces in Europe. The other most experienced forces in Europe, the AFU, are dead and disabled.
“You cannot find any major strain of (US) foreign policy for the last 20 years in this country executed by this country that looks sane. I’m serious. We have not done anything that looks sane” - Lawrence Wilkinson, 27th December, 2021.
>>> Authorization Of “Volunteer Heroes” <<<
- Denial is critical to the execution of this grubby and desperate strategy of Western Governments. Richard Gabriel, former Pentagon intelligence officer, knew something about it. Published in his book No More Heroes: Madness & Psychiatry in War, 1987.
- With commentary that a surviving 50% numerically to those killed in battle become psychiatric cases although some 2% deal quite well - psychopaths do. Those capable of great acts of courage generally die.
“The mindset of the soldier on the battlefield is a highly disturbed mind . . . an epidemic of insanity which affects everybody . . . those not affected by it die very quickly” - William Manchester, WWII marine.
- And so to the realm of "there's one born every minute", to be manipulated by the professional classes of politics and media. You do not send inexperienced volunteers to a war zone where your own forces can do the job and finish it. Unless they can't. This makes Western Governments criminally conspiratorial for allowing this. Western Governments receive their national security reports. They have a grip on the Ukraine Proxy War. It is not going well - for them.
- All the "prediction markets" betting houses and bookmakers have shut down any action regarding Ukraine. They did have odds of 7 to 1 in favor of The Russian Armed Forces. Now not taking bets on Russia winning. As reported. How do they know? They know. Yet inexperienced freedom fighting volunteers are encouraged to go with media reports supporting them. As here in Australia.
- Encouraging people to go fight in The Ukraine Proxy War or any war is a crime under international law. This applies to Western Governments and their media which run supporting narratives and thus are criminal conspirators. That this is done draws up from that deep well of deliberate confusion of certain realities, especially military ones. Just what military professionals say, meaning the real ones who have faced down the bullets is edifying, if not more or less evident, more or less if one devotes time to the inconsistencies. So . . .
Professional armed forces training extends over many months and years, with an emphasis on teams and the same people in those military teams.
The introduction of new weapons systems requires such extensive training, to be repeated. Years.
Military campaigns must be trained for on home territory in highly constructed programs before "the chaps" are sent off to the battlefield.
Actual, on the ground, operations are not a matter for speculation and must be determined from the facts of each situation. The Russian Armed Forces says very little and is not in it to win an Information War. They control the battle space. Only they know and they say very little. Western media have all the answers They take their scripts from Ukrainian media and the Ukrainian Government media releases.
Volunteers, from all backgrounds, languages and experiences, cannot be integrated into tightly fighting units. Accordingly, their life expectancy drops to minutes when detected by Russian Forces. Some who did make it back remarked - "We never saw the enemy. We came under long distance artillery attacks". And so they did. Not the Russian Safari they were led to believe. And they were led to believe it.
- Popular media personalities are not volunteering to go and fight for the Ukrainian people, nor their production staff nor management, nor the political class. They, incidentally, do receive reports on progress which they will not run. They know how bad this is for the AFU.
- As noted [prior Substack post], your life expectancy when coming up against a professional army is counted in minutes. This night video clip, recorded by a drone of Russian special forces destroying a group of the AFU, now blocked.
- Post battle forensic work. What volunteers and the general public do not see, otherwise they would not volunteer nor support wars. Of reports of AFU personnel using drugs to deal with “circumstances”, including being shot if they try to surrender or abandon their posts, one body here, some days old. Blocked.
From a screenshot prior, forensic work on dead AFU - Note Blue Canula in right arm. Quite visible in the clip. For the injection of drugs. As reported.
- It is necessary to block battlefield outcomes in The West to prevent desertion away from The Current Cause. Occasionally admitted.
"People sleep peacefully in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf" - Richard Grenier, 1993. Frequently misquoted.
- Below. Night time destruction of a detachment of the AFU in the industrial zone of Severodonetsk. Still shots if the clip is blocked. https://ok.ru/video/3524831480448.
Before and after. As noted previously, when detected, your life expectancy is counted in minutes. As was theirs. They just “vanish”!
- Three final notes on “volunteers”.
“British citizens Sean Pinner and Aiden Eslin, as well as Moroccan Saadoun Brahim, were convicted in the Donetsk People's Republic on charges of participating in military operations on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to the totality of crimes, Aslin Aiden, Pinner Sean and Saadun Brahim as punishment receive the death penalty", the verdict of the Supreme Court of the DPR, as reported. The eastern Ukrainian provinces have the death penalty. Russia not. Regular armed forces are protected under the Geneva Convention. Mercenaries not.
These people’s governments will show not the slightest interest in them. The fate of cannon fodder.
Agreements between the governments of The Ukraine and Poland to make Polish recruits a part of the AFU (the new NATO Army in Western Ukraine) will not work here. A mercenary remains a mercenary. A certain reason these three convicted mercenaries and all others will hang. Of the workings of governments, those people understand nothing.
>>> What Is Next <<<
The New World Order after Russian sanctions are applied against foreign countries and individuals.
The Russian Government does take its time to react and to move. Unlike the leadership of The West, much thought and time attends their moves.
Russia plays Chess; China plays Go; The West - Snakes and Ladders.
In no particular order . . .
– New international alliances are formed, along the lines forecast by Halford Mackinder, British Geographer, 1904. Assiduously resisted by foreign Western interventionists.
- The US dollar and other Western currencies not backed by significant physical resources and industrial power lose value. This will effect the US dollar system of international arrangements as major traders shift contracts to their currencies, so avoiding US$ trade contracts. They have the military power to prevent The Spoiler. They have said as much.
- More powerful states will insist on payments in national currencies and reject arrangements in foreign currencies, notably the US dollar. This will cause, in the United States and other similar countries, a financial crisis and loss of stability in the national currencies and with runaway inflation. This itself an indicator that Russia and China are removing the capacity of The West to wage foreign wars to protect Western elite interests.
- Some global supply chains will collapse. Airlines denied Russia flyover rights (to Asia) will face insolvency. Russia the largest and longest country.
– Terrorists, so called, say freedom fighters or insurgents, who see the loss of "Western resolve" as sometimes expressed, will act against historic enemies. The reported loss of small weapons shipped to The Ukraine, as with Iraq, will be used against Western interests. Think shoulder launched anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft missiles that one or two men can carry. Europe already awash in illegal personal weapons; the United States receives the media attention. Now Western supplied battlefield weapons are reported as flowing out of The Ukraine, with profits going to corrupt interests of the Ukrainian Government and their AFU commanders.
AFU using an American Javelin missile.
Russian Forces in The Ukraine with captured American Javelin missiles. But not all of them.
- Of countries imposing sanctions on Russian energy supplies, they may not be able to reverse those as Russia refuses to reciprocate. Many face severe economic hardship which will fuel political disturbances. Many people will abandon the "liberal democratic" ideal as they see their so-called freedoms do not pay for food, rent and energy. The narrative propaganda breaks down.
- Domestic matters will worsen in countries where natural endowments and systems of commerce are owned by foreign investors or domestic oligarchs, the latter generally expressed in soothing tones like "the Manhattan elites". The vast private property interests of the few will be "challenged" by the many who have nothing and thus have nothing to lose.
- Countries that back their currencies with resources count, so long as they have military power. Libya, a country that couldn’t, for example. Debt financialized, service based, low manufacturing economies do not count. Sending their manufacturing to Asia was their civilizational error. Think - the US, Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Europe. What fools they were. Such fools they remain. They did retain some manufacturing - notably their largely privatized armaments industries.
– Regional military conflicts will arise where difficulties have remained unresolved and suppressed by military force and where the important interests of major international players are concerned.
– New epidemics will come, due to degraded global health cooperation on health or caused by the demonstrated and misdirected use of biological weapons.
- A loss of Western concepts of international relations such as “rules-based international order”, the collapse of the idea of an Americentric world and the splitting of the globe into countries that have resources and industrial power - Eurasia and those that do not - The West.
More than a forecast. It is underway.
11th June, 2022. Melbourne, Australia.
People do not expect to find chastity in a whorehouse. Why, then, do they expect to find honesty and humanity in government, a congeries of institutions whose modus operandi consists of lying, cheating, stealing and if need be, murdering those who resist?
and . . .
The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.
Henry Lewis Mencken, American writer.